PNW Passage Day 2

May 19, 2020

Today’s post includes a short update from El Capitán followed by an overview from Estelle’s weather routing service.

The Captain’s Log

Day two. We are on a close reach in 15-25kts, reefed most of the time, in sizable waves. Nobody feels great and some of the crew feel quite crappy. Indeed. We are hunkered down for the next 4 days or so until we get further north and the wind veers more easterly. We are actually headed in a NNW direction, not the NNE we would prefer. But the only way to fix that is to sail hard on the wind and I don’t want to do that to the crew. In the grand scheme, it won’t make any difference and we are in no hurry.

To: Mark and Heidi Green and SY “Estelle”  
From:             Commanders’ Weather Corp, tel 603-882-6789
Route:           Hilo, HI to Cape Flattery, WA but possibly still Alaska/British Columbia first
Departure: 1200ht/2200utc Monday, May 18, 2020
Prepared:        1330utc/0330ht Monday, May 18, 2020 

Summary…Right at this moment I am figuring on heading towards Cape Flattery, but we have plenty of time to decide on whether we want to route further N towards BC or AK instead of CF

1) High pressure near 35-36n/148-152w will shift a little ENE, but spread out during the next 4 days
a) by Fri morning the eastern North Pacific high pressure cell will be located from 42-45n/142-146w
to 34-36n/150-154w
2) Developing NNE sea breeze when we depart. Trade winds are more E or ENE starting 10-14 miles offshore
a) while in the light sea breezy winds, I have you motoring/motor sailing along Great Circle route towards Cape Flattery
b) when the E/ENE trade winds develop, I have you sailing N 60-70 degrees off the wind or +/- north
3) We should reach the E/ENE trade winds late afternoon or around sunset
a) trade winds will reach 14-20 kts tonight
b) 20-30% chance of a late night shower or squall arriving from the E – brief gust to 25-30 kts is possible on the leading edge of the rain. Very light winds in the middle of the shower and just after it passes by.

4) Trade winds will tend to back late afternoon/around sunset and tend to veer/clock during the early morning hours
a) trade winds could be as high as 17-24 kts around sunset both Wed and Thu
5) By Fri morning we will be approaching 30n/approaching the high pressure ridge and lighter winds
6) Once into the lighter/light winds Fri, I have you heading due N to get into the S and SSW as soon as practical

Right now, an update on Friday, May 22nd looks like a good idea!

Wind forecasts
Time is UTC(HT is UTC -10 hours and PDT is -7 hours): wind directions are TRUE/wind speed in kts

Mon, May 18
1800: light/variable
2100: 090-030/ 5-10, sea breeze developing with the trade winds 10+ miles offshore
Weather…Partly to mostly sunny. NE-E seas 5-7 feet

Tue, May 19
00: 030-090/ 8-12
06: 060-080/12-17, heading N, 70 degrees off the wind
12: 060-080/14-20, estimating you near 21 05n/154 35w
18: 060-080/15-20
Partly cloudy Tue – Thu. Chance of a late night/early morning shower/squall with gusts as high as 25-30 kts possible. But remember, very light winds in the middle of the shower and immediately behind it. And, the showers will be moving from the right of the surface

wind. NE-E seas 5-7 feet and maybe briefly higher at times

Wed, May 20
00: 060-080/15-20
06: 050-070/17-24
12: 070-090/13-18, near 23 45n/154 35w
18: 060-080/12-17

Thu, May 21
00: 050-070/12-16
06: 050-070/17-23
12: 060-080/13-18, near 26 25n/154 40w
18: 060-080/15-20

Fri, May 22
00: 060-080/13-17
06: 060-080/12-16
12: 070-090/ 8-14, near 29 05n/154 40w
18: 080-110/ 7-12, heading N with the light winds
Partly cloudy with NE-E seas diminishing and we see some W-NW swell arriving